Stochastic production planning with regime switching

Markov Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility

This is a project on modeling time-varying volatility of S&P 500 weely return for the years 1990 to 2012 using Bayesian methods. First, MCMC on the log-stochastic volatility (SV) model is implemented with simulation results analyzed. Second, I generalize the SV model to encompass regime-switching properties with the markov switching log-stochastic volatility (MSSV) model, under which, high-vola...

Stochastic Functional Differential Equation under Regime Switching

We discuss stochastic functional differential equation under regime switching dx t f xt, r t , t dt q r t x t dW1 t σ r t |x t |βx t dW2 t . We obtain unique global solution of this system without the linear growth condition; furthermore, we prove its asymptotic ultimate boundedness. Using the ergodic property of the Markov chain, we give the sufficient condition of almost surely exponentially ...

Time delay model for the stochastic volatility with regime switching

Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility with Perturbation Based Option Pricing

Volatility modelling has become a significant area of research within Financial Mathematics. Wiener process driven stochastic volatility models have become popular due their consistency with theoretical arguments and empirical observations. However such models lack the ability to take into account long term and fundamental economic factors e.g. credit crunch. Regime switching models with mean r...

Medium Term Hydroelectric Production Planning - A Multistage Stochastic Optimization Model

Multistage stochastic programming is a key technology for making decisions over time in an uncertain environment. One of the promising areas in which this technology is implementable, is medium term planning of electricity production and trading where decision makers are typically faced with uncertain parameters (such as future demands and market prices) that can be described by stochastic proc...